Category: Research

Articles & Reports by Charles Sullivan

Conference papers and presentations

Sullivan, C. & Wren, J. (2022). Valuing lives and deaths. Presented at Aotearoa New Zealand Evaluation Association conference, Wellington, October 2022.

Sullivan, C. (2016). Justice and the IDI: Initial uses, future plans, and the importance of collaboration. Presentation to symposium at MSD in Wellington, 22 February 2016 (Using Integrated Data for Social Sector Policy and Practice). https://csda.aut.ac.nz/resources/events

Sullivan, C. & Stark, G. (2014). Administrative data: Evaluative use, introducing the IDI. Presentation to Aotearoa New Zealand Evaluation Association (ANZEA), Wellington group.

Sullivan, C. (2010). A decade of evaluating voluntary travel behaviour change: why don’t we know what works? Presented at Australasian Evaluation Society conference, Wellington, September 2010.

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2009). New Zealanders’ travel patterns: trends in trip chaining and tours. Presented at 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, Auckland, October 2009. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2009). Trends in older New Zealanders’ travel patterns. Presented at 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, Auckland, October 2009. Paper (pdf)

Sullivan, C. & O’Fallon, C. (2009). Segmentation research for sustainable transport: do’s and don’ts. Presented at 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, Auckland, October 2009. Paper (pdf)

Sullivan, C. & Percy, A. (2008). Evaluating changes associated with workplace and school travel plans: something old, something borrowed, something new. Presented at 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast, October 2008. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2006). Understanding light and medium commercial vehicle movements in urban corridors. Presented at 29th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast, September 2006. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2006). Walcyng in New Zealand: An analysis of readiness to change. Presented at 29th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast, September 2006. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2005). Trip chains and tours: definitional issues associated with household travel surveys. Presented at 28th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Sydney, September 2005. Paper (pdf)

Oxley, P., Sullivan, C., & Turner, S. (2005). Tax compliance costs of small businesses 2004: improving the estimates. Presented at 2005 IRS Research Conference, June 2005, Washington DC. Paper (pdf)

Sullivan, C. & O’Fallon, C. (2004). Understanding the nature of “short trips” in the New Zealand context. Presented at Towards Sustainable Land Transport Conference, Wellington, November 2004. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2003). Older people’s travel patterns & transport sustainability in New Zealand cities. Presented at 26th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Wellington, October 2003. Paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2003). Personalised marketing—improving evaluation. Presented at 26th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Wellington, October 2003. Paper (pdf)

Public sector reports

Sullivan, C., Ong S-W., & McRae, R. (2017). Justice Sector Seriousness Score (2016 update): FAQs. www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/2016-FAQs-Seriousness-Scores2.pdf

Sullivan, C., & Povey, L. (2015). Measuring re-offending with court data: Proposed Tier 1 specification Measuring re-offending with court data: Proposed Tier 1 specification. www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/measuring-re-offending-with-court-data-201512.pdf

Morris, M. & Sullivan, C. (2015). The impact of sentencing on adult offenders’ future employment and re-offending – community work versus fines. New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 15/04  https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2015-06/twp15-04.pdf

Keall M., A. Stroombergen, C. Sullivan, M. Cameron and H. Weiss (2012): An Analysis of Potential Factors behind the 2011 Reduction in New Zealand Road Fatalities. Wellington: Ministry of Transport.

Sullivan, C., & O’Fallon, C. (2011). Walking and cycling: Improving combined use of physical activity/health and transport data. NZ Transport Agency Research Report 435. Available from: www.nzta.govt.nz

Sullivan, C., & O’Fallon, C. (2010). Kilometres travelled and vehicle occupancy in urban areas: improving evaluation and monitoring. New Zealand Transport Agency Research Report 399. Available from: www.nzta.govt.nz

O’Fallon, C., & Sullivan, C. (2009). Trends in trip chaining and tours: analysing changes in New Zealanders’ travel patterns using the ongoing New Zealand household travel survey. Wellington:  New Zealand Transport Agency. Research Report 373 (pdf)

O’Fallon, C., Sullivan, C. (2009). Trends in older people’s travel patterns: Analysing changes in older New Zealanders’ travel patterns using the Ongoing NZ Household Travel Survey. Wellington: New Zealand Transport Agency. Research Report 369 (pdf)

O’Reilly, J., & Sullivan, C. (2008). New Zealand Crime and Safety Survey 2006 – Technical Report. Wellington: Ministry of Justice.

O’Fallon, C., & Sullivan, C. (2007). Light/medium commercial vehicle use in four urban centres. Wellington: Land Transport New Zealand. Research Report 316 (pdf)

Sullivan, C., O’Fallon, C. (2006). Increasing cycling and walking: an analysis of readiness to change. Wellington: Land Transport New Zealand. Research Report 294 (pdf)

Sullivan, C. (2005). Improving tax compliance cost research—the New Zealand story continues. Wellington: Inland Revenue (Evaluation Services).

“The major design and intellectual work was carried out by Dr Charles Sullivan, Director of Capital Research. The depth of his understanding and his ability to integrate the conceptual and the practical, in relation to the many fields of interest – tax, business, compliance costs, survey research – greatly improved the validity of our estimates.”

O’Fallon, C., Sullivan, C. (2005). Trip chaining: understanding how New Zealanders link their travel. Wellington: Transfund New Zealand. Research Report No. 268 (pdf)

Sullivan, C. (2004). Review of older driver crash statistics. Wellington: Ministry of Transport.

The “Sullivan Report” was used in a Human Rights Commission submission on changing driver licensing rules, and by IPENZ in their submission on the driver licensing rule change (which commended it as “a comprehensive and technically reliable report”). 

Sullivan, C., Oakden, J., Young, J., Butcher, H., & Lawson, R. (2003). Overview Report (Obstacles to Action: A Study of New Zealanders’ Physical Activity and Nutrition). Can be downloaded here

Project Highly Commended in Market Research Effectiveness Awards 2004

Sullivan, C., Oakden, J., Young, J., Butcher, H., & Lawson, R. (2003). Technical report (Obstacles to Action: A Study of New Zealanders’ Physical Activity and Nutrition).

Sullivan, C. (1998). Social impact of physical leisure—an update. Wellington: Hillary Commission.

Manly, B.F.J & Gonzalez, L.; Charles Sullivan. (1994). Statistical errors in Abbott/Volberg report (1992) on problem gambling in New Zealand. New Zealand Lotteries Commission Discussion Paper Series: Number 4.

Jensen, B., Sullivan, C., Wilson, N., Barclay, M., & Russell, D. (1993). The business of sport and leisure: The economic & social impact of physical activity in New Zealand. Wellington: Hillary Commission.

Yi, E., Sullivan, J. C., & Pantua, L. B. (1992). New Zealand International Visitors Survey 1990/91; General Report. Wellington: NZ Tourism Board.

Journal articles

McAlevey, L., & Sullivan, C. (2010). Statistical literacy and sample survey results. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology 41(7), 911-920. doi: 10.1080/0020739X.2010.486905

O’Fallon, C., & Sullivan, C. (2004). Personalised marketing—improving evaluation. Transport Engineering in Australia, 9, 85–102. Abstract Working paper (pdf)

O’Fallon, C., Sullivan, C., & Hensher, D. (2004). Constraints affecting mode choices by morning car commuters. Transport Policy, 11, 17–29. Abstract 

Hensher, D., & Sullivan, C. (2003). Willingness to pay for road curviness and road type. Transportation Research D, 8, 139–155. Abstract

O’Fallon, C. & Sullivan, C. (2003). Understanding and managing weekend traffic congestion. Presented at 26th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Wellington, October 2003. Paper (pdf)

Sullivan, C. & O’Fallon, C. (2003). Vehicle occupancy in New Zealand’s three largest urban areas. Presented at 26th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Wellington, October 2003. Paper (pdf)

Above paper won John H. Taplin prize for best paper, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2003

O’Fallon, C., Sullivan, C., & Cottam, P. (2002) Walking School bus networks: A ‘flaxroots’ approach to cleaner air. Proceedings from the 16th International Clean Air & Environment Conference, Christchurch, New

McAlevey, L., Everett, A.M., & Sullivan, C. (2001). Evolution in business statistics curricula: learning from the “Making statistics more effective in schools of business” conference. The Statistician, 50, 321–333. Abstract

McAlevey, L., & Sullivan, C. (2001). Making statistics more effective for business? International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 32, 425–438. Paper (pdf)

Examples

Some projects and programmes Charles has had a major role in:

Evaluation

  • Place-Based Initiatives – implementation and emerging outcomes evaluation. I managed the contract for this for a couple of years (when at Social Wellbeing Agency). It required some tricky decisions about right mix of qual and quant (Integrated Data Infrastructure / IDI) and respectful navigation of the central government role in such regionally led work.
  • Qualitative evaluation of a pilot change management programme at Auckland Prison (‘Right Track’). This involved interviewing prisoners and staff.

Administrative data / Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI)

  • Manager of Analytics team of data scientists working with IDI at Social Wellbeing Agency for 7 months in 2020
  • Coordinating several analysts working on ‘Investment Approach for Justice’ in 2016 (one of the largest projects using the IDI until then)
  • Sentencing analysis (Ministry of Justice): A series of 4 related papers quantifying major changes in sentencing over the previous 10 years and estimating impact on employment and re-offending (e.g. joint paper with Treasury)

Survey management and advice

  • Led change to interactive Kupe data explorer instead of traditional survey reports (at Health Promotion Agency)
  • NZ Crime & Safety Survey: face-to-face nationwide using CAPI/CASI, n>5000, exceptionally complex questionnaire. Led fieldwork supply in 2006 (as Director at Nielsen), provided technical advice in 2009 & 2014 (as independent consultant in 2009; from within the Ministry of Justice in 2014), and helped with initial planning for the new survey that started in 2018
  • Innovative stated choice design and analysis working with University of Sydney (willingness-to-pay transport survey)

Planning / review

  • Coordinated Wellbeing Expertise programme planning at Social Wellbeing Agency in 2021
  • Review of the use (and misuse) of older driver crash statistics in policy (the ‘Sullivan Report‘). Major changes in testing requirements for older drivers followed shortly afterwards.

For more detail, see selected presentations, papers and publications here.

Services

What can he help you most with in evaluation / research / admin data analysis?

  • Challenges – quantitative, research/evaluation management, survey design.
  • ‘Analytical synthesis’ – the crafts of mixing methods/evidence types or fostering collaboration. Both multidisciplinary collaboration and getting best value when integrating generalists and specialists.
  • ‘Been there done that’ – aspects of wellbeing, health, justice, transport, or tax compliance costs where Charles is already familiar with the territory.
  • Risk management – identifying likely major problems months/years down the track based on many years of seeing projects unfold. Based on experience built from having often deliberately chosen high-risk projects/positions.
  • Recovery – prioritising steps to recover from awkward situations is surprisingly tricky. This often demands fluency in all the areas listed above.

How can we help?

  • Independent consultancy or in-house contracts (maximum of 4 days per week preferred).
  • Scoping, planning and reviewing research/evaluations/analyses.
  • Coaching in research management or techniques (quantitative, survey design).
  • Delivery of complete evaluation/research projects – will often require working together with others.

Examples